We don't ever go out of our way to be pessimistic on this blog, in fact we tend to be quite the opposite, having a firm belief that optimism is the only valid way when it comes to investing. However, when it comes to borrowing, which as we all know is essentially the reverse of investing, it pays, quite literally, to be even a little pessimistic!
If you are new to our website then you are truly welcome, thank you so much for giving us a chance to help create a positive financial future for you. We are on a mission to become THE place where people of Ireland turn to for practical and truthful information and ideas in regards their Financial Planning, Investing & Personal Finance. Thank you for playing a part in this mission. Be delighted if you joined our growing community here.
Buying a home, whether it is your first, second, third, fourth (well maybe the novelty wears off around now!) or whatever, is an exciting time. For many purchasing a home is a way out of a tough situation or indeed an opportunity to put down roots that they feel desperate to put down. We have no intention of talking anyone out of doing what they need to do, but invite you now to consider some aspects prior to committing..........
Thanks for tuning-in,
Paddy Delaney
QFA | RPA | APA | Qualified Coach
"Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around and guard it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head"
Those remarks about the logic of owning gold as an investment were made by someone far more experienced and accomplished in the world of investing than I, and who has been recognised over the past 4 or 5 decades as one of the single most successful investors of all time, Warren Buffett.
We have written about the fact that there is a significant fall in the value of markets on the horizon, there always is, it is merely a matter of when it will happen, not if! Whenever that happens there is usually a run to gold as it is seen by many as a 'safe-haven' for their funds when the equity markets are falling. Why people don't just do nothing, and leave their investments alone in order to benefit from the constant upward curve of growth that the equity market provides is another issue altogether! Aside from that the fact is that gold gets very popular when markets hit a downturn, so we are going to explore the pros and cons of owning gold for investment purposes.
If you are new here then you are most welcome to Ireland's dedicated Financial Planning and Personal Finance blog and podcast......we are delighted that you have joined us! If you are a returning visitor you'll already know we love you!!
Paddy Delaney
QFA | RPA | APA | Qualified Coach
Welcome back to Ireland's dedicated Financial Planning Podcast & Blog.
We have had a lot of enquiries about Peer 2 Peer Lending over the past few months, so we thought what better way to find out the detail than to interview a man that has been involved in it for many years. Oli Cavanagh is co-founder of an Irish Fintech 'Fender' which is focused on growing the Peer2Peer marker in Ireland.
We met with Oli to learn about P2P lending, how it works, what to watch-out for and to hear about the growth of their firm Flender.
Drop us an email here with any questions or suggestions you might have, would love to hear from you!
You're a legend,
Paddy Delaney,
QFA | RPA | APA | Qualified Coach
In Blog 61 we mentioned Section 72 plans and said the following....These are creations of the Financial Services industry endorsed by the Revenue and are sold to people as a means to reduce or indeed eliminate a potential Inheritance or Gift Tax Bill down the road. They cost money and I am told are not as much fun nor rewarding as giving the money to loved-ones while you are alive! Having said that they can work very well for some people in building an effective Financial Plan and planning their inheritance in a tax effective manner, particularly if the estate is of a size and time is against them in gifting enough in the time left! We will devote full episodes to both these types of plans in the near future.
So, as promised a few weeks ago we now going to try explain what exactly a Section 72 is, and isn't, and how to ensure that, if this is something you are thinking is for you, how to ensure it does what you want it to do for you, to achieve the goal you have in mind.
Speaking of goals, that is what we are on a mission to do here at Informed Decisions, to help you achieve the goals that are important to you. I completely empathise that our industry doesn't always make it easy to see the wood from the trees but that is our mission, to help you get whatever it is that is important to you. You can join our community here, and please do share this with anyone you feel may benefit from it. Boom!
If you can't or don't want to spend the money or give it away before you die then a Section 72 plan may very well be a really useful and cost effective last resort to help cover the tax bill that inherently (no pun intended!) arises when someone dies with too much money. The very worst case scenario is that a vast swathe of the estate is handed over to the revenue, this might just be a means to protect against that fate.
Thanks.
Paddy Delaney
QFA | RPA | APA | Qualified Coach
Optimism is the madness of insisting all is well when we are miserable.
These words are reported to have come from Voltaire, the acclaimed French writer and philosopher. I am neither a Frenchman or a philosopher but I would like to put forward the suggestion that Optimism is actually the only way! When backed by concrete evidence it is the only rational belief to have, particularly so when it comes to investing your money over the long term.
This piece aims to convey the rationale for such a belief whether you are savings €100 per month into a savings or pension plan, or have €10 million invested in a well diversified equity portfolio. This is not a debate about the virtues of owning equities over commodities, or for indeed property. Developing and nurturing this belief is the single most important attribute to have in achieving long term investment success. We can't predict the future values of equities, nobody can. The future is always uncertain, however it is rational and human to base our expectations and beliefs on what has gone before.
Firstly please allow me to confirm that optimism does not equate to sentiment. The Consumer Sentiment Index hit a 17-year high in January of this year. This suggests that as a nation we feel confident about the outlook for the economy, right now. This sentiment is a fickle thing which changes constantly based on our environment, it is not an over-arching belief.
Optimism, in this instance is an over-arching belief. It is a belief based on evidence. This evidence shows long term growth of the 'equity market' is upward only in its trajectory. While our industry might like to mystify and complicate things the 'equity market' is nothing more than the value of the World's profit-generating companies.
The basis for this belief is supported by a vast ocean of evidence. One recent piece of credible and researched evidence to refer to is 'The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870 - 2015, produced by five economists including Oscar Jorda of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Katharina Knoll from the Deutsche Budesbank - examined the return on all asset classes in 16 developed countries over that 145-year period. It found equities returned 10.75% a year over that time. That is, more than 10% annual growth every year, on average, for almost a century & a half.
There were, of course, years where the return was negative 20-40% over that time period. Investors must learn to accept this fact, for it is these temporary declines in values that deliver such impressive returns for the investor who does stay the course. Those who cannot stay the course in the face of these temporary declines ultimately pay the price for their pessimism. Enabling you to stay the course is where a credible financial advisor can pay for themselves many time over, their value far exceeding their cost, but only if that relationship is build on mutual respect and trust! History has shown that over the long term a well diversified equity portfolio has delivered far in excess of inflation, which is ultimately the curve most investors strive to stay ahead of, otherwise they are losing money.
If the world's companies is your investment of choice then there is much to be optimistic about based on current trends. According to the World Bank 42% of the world's population was defined as living in extreme poverty in 1990. As of 2016 the World Bank suggest the percentage in extreme poverty has fallen to below 10%, meaning 90% of the ever growing population now have more disposable income, and can purchase the produce and services they desire. Who benefits from this expenditure? The companies of the world who provide them with goods and services. The same companies form the 'equity market' which investors can be owners of when they purchase a well diversified equity portfolio. In addition, research by Brookings suggest that 140 million people are exiting poverty and entering middle-class each and every year on this planet. That's nearly 3million people per week with ore disposable income.
There will be another equity market crash, the evidence has shown that volatility is part and parcel of the journey. A period of temporary market decline is never more than a few years away....but learn to accept that, to welcome it, to see beyond it, and recognise that the 'markets' reward those who believe that declines are temporary, nothing more and nothing less. The 10% returns mentioned earlier were achieved despite many global crises, many dark days, many wars, and many self confessed experts predicting that this time the world really was going to end!
Please excuse me if I conclude by contorting Voltaire ever so slightly and suggest that.......madness is insisting that all is miserable when all is well!!
Optimism is the way....